Alexandre Deulofeu (1903–1978), a pharmacist and philosopher from Figueres, Girona, who developed a theory called the Mathematics of History.
​He based his work largely on the cyclical theories of the German philosopher Oswald Spengler (author of The Decline of the West) and the British historian Arnold J. Toynbee (author of A Study of History). 
​Key Influences
​Oswald Spengler: Provided the foundational idea that civilizations are living organisms that experience birth, youth, maturity, and death.
​Arnold J. Toynbee: Deulofeu studied Toynbee’s "challenge and response" model but criticized both him and Spengler for not being "mathematical" enough.
​Deulofeu's "Mathematics"
​Deulofeu refined their ideas into a strict chronological framework:
​Civilization Cycle: Lasts roughly 1,700 years.
​Empire Cycle: Lasts approximately 550 years.
​The Law of Two Steps Forward, One Step Back: He used these precise numbers to predict the fall of the USSR and the reunification of Germany decades before they happened.
​Would you like me to find his specific predictions for the United States or China?
Alexandre Deulofeu’s "Mathematics of History" offers a strikingly deterministic view of the rise and fall of nations. While he is most famous for predicting the collapse of the Soviet Union (which he viewed as a late-stage "Second Empire"), his predictions for the United States and China are equally specific, if not more sobering for the current era.
​1. The United States: The Decadence of the "First Empire"
​Deulofeu categorized the United States as being in the final, aggressive, and ultimately decadent phase of its First Empire cycle.
​The Prediction: He predicted that the United States would begin a period of internal disintegration and loss of global hegemony starting in the late 20th and early 21st centuries.
​The Outcome: Deulofeu argued that the U.S. would transition from a "federal democracy" to a more authoritarian or "autocratic" system as it struggled to maintain its global reach. He specifically noted that the U.S. had entered a phase where its military interventions would become increasingly ineffective and costly, signaling the start of a decline that leads to a "demographic fractionation" (internal division).
​The Timeline: While he didn't give a single "end date" as precise as his 2029 prediction for Spain, his followers suggest the U.S. "imperial" weight will continue to collapse throughout the mid-21st century, eventually giving way to a more localized, decentralized social structure.
​2. China: The Great Imperialist Expansion
​In contrast to the declining West, Deulofeu viewed China as an emerging giant just entering its most aggressive imperialist phase.
​The Prediction: Deulofeu predicted that China would become the "great danger" of the 21st century. He saw it entering a stage of massive territorial and economic expansion.
​The Conflict: Most provocatively, he predicted a "destructive collision" between a rising China and a reunified Germany (which he saw as the future protector of Europe).
​Specific Movement: He suggested that China would expand its influence westward, eventually attempting to occupy the eastern half of Russia (Siberia) as the Russian "empire" (following the fall of the USSR) continued to weaken. This makes China the dominant "Second Empire" of its current 1,700-year civilization cycle.
​Summary Table of Predictions